Introducing the Climate Dictionary: Understanding Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) Ahead of COP31
As the world prepares for COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye (9–20 November 2026), one critical question continues to surface: How well do we actually understand the key mechanisms driving global climate action?
One of the most important yet often misunderstood tools is the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
To help demystify these concepts, we introduce the idea of a Climate Dictionary, a simple, clear way of explaining the terms that shape climate policy and urban resilience. In this edition, we focus on NDCs and why they matter for African cities.
What Are Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)?
According to the Climate Dictionary approach:
- An NDC is a country’s official climate action plan under the Paris Agreement. It is designed to help limit global warming to 1.5°C and is updated every five years with increasing ambition.
- It outlines national priorities for both mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (building resilience to climate impacts). It also includes strategies for financing, tracking progress, and implementation.
- Progress is monitored through regular Global Stocktakes, which evaluate collective efforts toward the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement.
In short, NDCs are the backbone of the Paris Agreement. They represent each country’s self-defined contribution to the global climate effort.
Why the Five-Year Cycle Matters
The Paris Agreement established a “ratchet mechanism.” Every five years, countries are expected to submit new or updated NDCs that are more ambitious than the previous ones. This cycle is intended to close the gap between current commitments and the level of action needed to keep 1.5°C within reach.
The first Global Stocktake, concluded at COP28, confirmed that the world is still not on track. The latest generation of NDCs (often referred to as NDC 3.0) is therefore critical. While many new submissions show improved quality, with more economy-wide targets and stronger adaptation components, significant ambition and implementation gaps remain.
The Growing Role of Cities in NDCs
One of the most encouraging developments in recent NDCs is the increased recognition of cities.
Urban areas are responsible for a large share of global emissions and are also highly exposed to climate risks such as flooding, extreme heat, and water stress. In Africa, where urbanization is occurring at one of the fastest rates in the world, the stakes are particularly high.
Recent analyses show that a growing number of NDCs now include concrete urban measures related to:
- Sustainable urban planning and compact city design
- Housing and informal settlements
- Public transport and low-carbon mobility
- Renewable energy and energy efficiency in buildings
- Waste management and circular economy approaches
- Nature-based solutions such as urban greening and green infrastructure
This shift is important. It signals that national climate plans are beginning to recognize that much of the real action and real impact will happen in cities.
What This Means for African Cities
Africa contributes a relatively small share of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet it faces disproportionate climate impacts. At the same time, the continent’s rapid urban growth presents a unique opportunity: many of the cities of 2050 are still being built.
If NDCs are well designed and effectively implemented, they can help African cities:
- Avoid locking in high-carbon infrastructure
- Strengthen climate resilience
- Improve access to basic services
- Create green jobs and economic opportunities
- Deliver more inclusive and liveable urban environments
However, turning national commitments into local results requires strong multilevel governance, adequate finance, technical capacity, and genuine community engagement.
ASCIF’s Perspective
At the African Smart Cities Innovation Foundation (ASCIF), we believe climate action must be practical, people-centred, and rooted in local realities. Understanding tools like NDCs is an important first step. The next and more difficult step is ensuring that these national plans translate into better outcomes for communities on the ground.
Through our work on smart and sustainable urban development, zero-waste systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, and inclusive innovation, we aim to help bridge the gap between global climate frameworks and African urban priorities.
Looking Ahead to COP31
COP31 offers a critical platform to move from ambition to implementation. As Parties gather in Antalya, the quality of NDCs, the level of support for developing countries, and the role of cities will all be under the spotlight.
The Climate Dictionary approach reminds us that clarity matters. When people understand the mechanisms that shape climate policy, they are better equipped to engage, advocate, and act.
Nationally Determined Contributions are more than technical documents. They are commitments that will help determine the future of our cities, our communities, and our planet.
At ASCIF, we remain committed to advancing solutions that put people and planet at the centre of Africa’s urban transformation.
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